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Saudi Arabia revises up Q1 GDP to highest rate since 2011 on oil activities

Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product growth has been revised up to 9.9 percent from 9.6 percent, according to a press release from the General Authority for Statistics, also known as GASTAT.

The growth is the highest since 2011 and is due to the high increase in oil activities, GASTAT said.

In the first quarter of 2022, year-on-year growth in the oil sector stood at 20.3 percent, while non-oil and government sectors rose by 3.7 percent and 2.4 percent respectively, according to the press release.

Non-oil growth

Quarter-on-quarter growth in the non-oil sector was revised down by 1.6 percentage points to 0.9 percent from the initial estimate of 2.5 percent, according to GASTAT data. 

In addition, the annual growth in the non-oil sector slowed from 5.1 percent and 6.3 percent in the fourth and third quarters of 2021, respectively, thereby marking a negative growth trend for non-oil activities over the past few quarters.

All economic activities recorded positive annual growth rates in the first quarter of 2022 with crude petroleum and natural gas activities achieving the highest growth of 20.7 percent, followed by petroleum refining activities by 17.3 percent.

Wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels activities grew by 6.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022.

On a quarterly basis, the seasonally adjusted real GDP was revised upward to 2.6 percent from the initial estimate of 2.2 percent.

In terms of contribution of economic activities to GDP at current prices, the non-oil oil sector came first with 40.4, followed by the oil and government sectors with 38.5 percent and 15.3 percent, respectively, data posted by GASTAT revealed.

The share contribution of the oil sector grew substantially from the low of 17.1 percent in the second quarter of 2020. 

Over the same period the respective shares of the non-oil and government sectors decreased from 53.8 and 24.6 percent, accordingly.

Wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels came third contributing to the GDP with 8.4 percent.

According to a recent publication by the World Bank, oil output — the main driver of the Saudi Arabian economic recovery — is expected to grow to 13 percent in 2022 following the end of the production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, in December 2022.

Consequently growth will accelerate to 7 percent in 2022, and then readjust to a more conservative rate of 3.8 percent and 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2024 respectively, according to the statement.

“While the majority of countries struggle from war-driven soaring oil prices, the world’s largest crude exporter has seen revenues soar on the back of $100 oil and rising production,” said Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan in a statement to Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

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