Saudi economy to grow an average of 3.9 percent for next four years: Moody’s

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s economy is forecast to grow at an average rate of 3.9 percent between 2022 to 2026, according to credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service. 

In its annual credit analysis, Moody’s affirmed Saudi Arabia’s rating at ‘A1’ with a stable outlook, primarily driven by its robust government balance sheet, underpinned by moderate debt levels and substantial fiscal reserve buffers.

The report noted the large stock of proven hydrocarbon reserves with low extraction costs combined with a regulated financial system is also supporting the Kingdom’s sovereign credit profile.

Some of the challenges faced by Saudi Arabia include its high economic and fiscal exposure to declines in global oil demand and prices, longer-term risks stemming from the global carbon transition and challenges posed by elevated unemployment, the report further added.

Even though the Kingdom’s growth trend and growth volatility both stand below the top tier As-A rated median, it still managed to rank higher than neighboring countries like Qatar and Kuwait.

The country’s national income, measured by Gross Domestic Product per capita in purchasing power terms, totaled $49,387 in 2021 according to International Monetary Fund estimates.

The Moody’s report indicated that high levels of income per capita usually shows a high capacity to absorb shock which may negatively affect economic growth and employment levels, 

Unprecedented oil market shocks and rising social pressure may put the Kingdom’s economy at risk due to its high concentration in the energy market, predicted Moody’s credit analysis. 

Nevertheless, the report assures that Saudi Arabia’’s highly strategic and competitive position in the global oil market more than compensates for that risk, as well as foresees promising conditions that could aid in that compensation.  

“In 2022, we expect oil production to increase to around 10.7 million barrels/day on average from around 9.1 million barrels/day in 2021, driven by the ongoing coordinated unwinding of the 2020 crude oil production cuts agreed by OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies),” stated Moody’s report. 

“This will underpin a 14 percent expansion in Saudi Arabia’s hydrocarbon sector and push overall real GDP growth above 7 percent in 2022,” it added.